過度自信效應
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过度自信效应（英語：overconfidence effect）為一行為偏誤，是指一个人对自己的主观信心遠大于客观准确性，尤其特別是当信心相对较高时。<ref name=Pallier2002>Pallier, Gerry; Wilkinson, Rebecca; Danthiir, Vanessa; Kleitman, Sabina; Knezevic, Goran; Stankov, Lazar; Roberts, Richard D. The Role of Individual Differences in the Accuracy of Confidence Judgments. The Journal of General Psychology. 2002, 129 (3): 257–299. PMID 12224810. S2CID 6652634. doi:10.1080/00221300209602099.</ref><ref>Moore, Don A.; Healy, Paul J. The trouble with overconfidence.. Psychological Review. April 2008, 115 (2): 502–517. ISSN 1939-1471. PMID 18426301. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.115.2.502 （English）.</ref>
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