编辑“过程追踪”

{{Expand English}}

'''过程追踪'''（process tracing）是一种用于开发和检验理论的研究方法。<ref name=":0">{{Cite journal |last=Collier |first=David |date=2011 |title=Understanding Process Tracing |url=https://archive.org/details/sim_ps-political-science-politics_2011-10_44_4/page/n130 |journal=PS: Political Science & Politics |volume=44 |issue=4 |pages=823–830 |doi=10.1017/s1049096511001429 |issn=1049-0965 |doi-access=free}}</ref><ref name="Handbook2011">{{cite book|title=A Handbook of Process Tracing Methods for Decision Research: A Critical Review and User's Guide|publisher=Taylor & Francis|year=2011|editor-last=Schulte-Mecklenbeck|editor-first=M.|location=New York|editor2-last=Kühberger|editor2-first=A.|editor3-last=Ranyard|editor3-first=R.}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Ford |first1=J. Kevin |last2=Schmitt |first2=Neal |last3=Schechtman |first3=Susan L. |last4=Hults |first4=Brian M. |last5=Doherty |first5=Mary L. |year=1989 |title=Process Tracing Methods: Contributions, Problems, and Neglected Research Questions |journal=Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes |volume=43 |issue=1 |pages=75–117 |doi=10.1016/0749-5978(89)90059-9}}</ref>该方法通常被理解为一种基于因果机制进行推论的“案例内”方法。<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Jacobs |first1=Alan M. |last2=Büthe |first2=Tim |last3=Arjona |first3=Ana |last4=Arriola |first4=Leonardo R. |last5=Bellin |first5=Eva |last6=Bennett |first6=Andrew |last7=Björkman |first7=Lisa |last8=Bleich |first8=Erik |last9=Elkins |first9=Zachary |last10=Fairfield |first10=Tasha |last11=Gaikwad |first11=Nikhar |date=2021 |title=The Qualitative Transparency Deliberations: Insights and Implications |url=https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/abs/qualitative-transparency-deliberations-insights-and-implications/890AA58A1829A075F1D28DA9BD54C2EB#supplementary-materials |journal=Perspectives on Politics |language=en |volume=Supplementary materials, Pt 2 |pages=171–208 |doi=10.1017/S1537592720001164 |issn=1537-5927 |s2cid=232050726 |access-date=2023-04-29 |archive-date=2023-07-08 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230708071306/https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/abs/qualitative-transparency-deliberations-insights-and-implications/890AA58A1829A075F1D28DA9BD54C2EB#supplementary-materials |dead-url=no }}</ref><ref name=":2">{{Cite web|last=Bennett|first=Andrew|date=2008|editor1-last=Box-Steffensmeier|editor1-first=Janet M|editor2-last=Brady|editor2-first=Henry E|editor3-last=Collier|editor3-first=David|title=Process Tracing: a Bayesian Perspective|url=https://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199286546.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199286546-e-30|url-status=no|website=The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology|language=en|doi=10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199286546.001.0001|isbn=978-0-19-928654-6|access-date=2023-04-29|archive-date=2021-03-23|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210323183602/https://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199286546.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199286546-e-30}}</ref>该方法被用于[[社会科学]]（如[[心理学]]<ref name="Handbook20112">{{cite book|title=A Handbook of Process Tracing Methods for Decision Research: A Critical Review and User's Guide|publisher=Taylor & Francis|year=2011|editor-last=Schulte-Mecklenbeck|editor-first=M.|location=New York|editor2-last=Kühberger|editor2-first=A.|editor3-last=Ranyard|editor3-first=R.}}</ref>）以及[[自然科学]]。<ref name=":2" />

使用过程追踪的学者根据测试（特别是风中稻草测试、箍测试、确凿证据测试、双重决定性测试）的强度评估证据的权重。<ref name=":2" />重要的不仅仅是观察的数量，还有观察的质量和方式。<ref name=":2" /><ref name="Handbook20112" />使用[[贝叶斯概率]]，可以通过过程跟踪从一小部分数据中做出强有力的因果推断。<ref name=":2" /><ref name=":5">{{Cite book|last1=Fairfield|first1=Tasha|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=kHB3EAAAQBAJ|title=Social Inquiry and Bayesian Inference|last2=Charman|first2=Andrew E.|date=2022|publisher=Cambridge University Press|isbn=978-1-108-42164-5|language=en}}</ref>过程追踪是一种突出的[[案例研究]]方法。<ref name=":4">{{Cite journal |last=Mahoney |first=James |date=2016-09-02 |title=Mechanisms, Bayesianism, and process tracing |url=https://doi.org/10.1080/13563467.2016.1201803 |journal=New Political Economy |volume=21 |issue=5 |pages=493–499 |doi=10.1080/13563467.2016.1201803 |issn=1356-3467 |s2cid=156167903}}</ref>

== 延伸阅读 ==

* Bennett, A. and A.L. George (2001). "Case Studies and Process Tracing in History and Political Science: Similar Strokes for Different Foci" in C. Elman and M.F.  Elman (eds.) ''Bridges and Boundaries: Historians, Political Scientists, and the Study of International Relations''. MIT Press pp.&nbsp;137–166.
* Checkel. J. T. (2006) "Tracing Causal Mechanisms." ''The International Studies Review'' 8: 362-370.
* Checkel, J. T. (2008) "Process Tracing." in A. Klotz and D. Prakash (eds.) ''Qualitative Methods in International Relations: A Pluralist Guide.'' Palgrave. pp.&nbsp;114–129.
* Vennesson, P. and I. Wiesner (2014) "Process Tracing in Case Studies." in J. Soeters, P. Shields and S Reitjens (eds) [https://books.google.com/books?id=ENDpAwAAQBAJ&pg=PT23 ''Routledge Handbook of Research Methods in Military Studies'']. Routledge. pp.&nbsp;92–103.

== 参考资料 ==
{{Reflist}}
[[Category:政治学]]
[[Category:心理学]]